Before you trade sandwiches, check between the bread. (source unknown)
Canada's longitudinal survey of children is yielding new information on the transitions into and away from church attendance between the period 1994-95 (1994 for short) and 1998-99 (1998). The transitions are available for several Christian faith communities, plus the total of non-Christian faiths. Many characteristics of the child and parent are also available from the survey. The overall message is one of major transitions, for example, 56% of children attended religious services regularly (at least monthly) in either 1994 or 1998, but only 33% in both years. Another example, of the regular attendees in 1998, 15% attended only occasionally in 1994, and 9% did not attend at all. Of the non-attendees in 1998, 15% attended regularly in 1994, and 28% occasionally in 1994.
Over one million of Canada's 4.7 million children under 12 years old in 1994 were attending worship services weekly 1998. Of this one million, 676 thousand (63%) had been attending weekly in 1994, 134 thousand (12%) had been attending monthly, 66 thousand (6%) three to four times yearly, 33 thousand (3%) at least one time a year, and 77 thousand (7%) were not attending at all four years earlier. The attendance status in 1994 of 94 thousand (9%) was unknown owing to non-response to the survey question in that year, though in 1998 weekly attendance was reported for these children.
Of the 624,000 monthly attendees in 1998, 26% were backsliders in the sense of reporting weekly attendance in 1994, while 35% were maintaining their attendance record of 1994, 15% had been attending three to four times yearly, 8% had been attending at least one time a year, 11% had not been attending at all, while 6% had not stated their attendance frequency in 1994. In total, the monthly attending group gained more children from the relatively inactive four years earlier, 40%, than from the relatively active weekly attendees, 26%.
| Source information: Statistic Canada's Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth, 1994-95 and 1998-99. The data refer to the non-institutional, non-Indian reservation cohort of children under 12 years of age in 1994-95, and aged four to 15 in 1998-99, resident in provinces in 1998-99. The faith community given is that of 1994-95; no information exists on denominational transitions in the four-year period. The most knowledgeable parent, usually the mother, reported information on the children. |
Some 1.4 million children were not attending church at all in 1998. Of these, 4% had been attending weekly four years earlier, 5% had been attending monthly, 9% had been attending three to four times a year, and another 9% had been attending at least one time a year. Most of the non-attendees, 74%, had either not attended church at all four years earlier, or had not stated their frequency of attendance four years earlier. The other 26%, represent backsliders from either occasional or regular attendance four years earlier.
Among children stating their frequency of worship, 44% were regular attendees in 1998, 32% occasional, and 24% non-attendees. Some 73% of the regular attendees in 1994 were also regular attendees in 1998 - this may be defined as the retention rate. The regular attendees in 1998 were also fed by children from the occasional and non-attendees in 1994. Almost one quarter of the occasional attendees in 1994 were regular attendees four years later, and 15% of the non-attendees in the earlier year were regular attendees in 1998. These may be called attraction rates. Most religious leaders would be interested in maximizing both the attraction and retention rates. These rates differ significantly by faith community.
The regular attendance rates for 1998 are highest among conservative Christian faiths, Baptist (62%) and smaller Christian faiths (66%), followed by the non-Quebec Catholic (56%), Lutheran (50%), and Presbyterian (48%) faiths, and noticeably lower for the Anglican and United Church faiths (about 33% each), and lowest of all for the Quebec Catholics (21%). The non-Christian faiths together have a relatively high attendance rate, almost as high as the non-Quebec Catholics.
The retention rates tend to follow a similar pattern, though with surprising results for Presbyterian, non-Christian and Lutheran. Some 79% of Baptists and 81% of smaller Christian faith children who attended regularly in 1994 also attended regularly in 1998. These retention rates were exceeded by the Presbyterian (84%) and non-Christian (85%), and matched by the Lutheran (80%), but were lower for the non-Quebec Catholics (75%), Anglicans (67%), and United Church (62%), and lowest of all for the Quebec Catholics (54%).
The attraction rates, both from occasional and non-attendees, are highest for non-Quebec Catholics and conservative Christians, and lowest for Quebec Catholic, Anglican and United Church children. Of the occasional and non-attending Catholics outside Quebec, 34% and 23%, respectively, became regular attendees in 1998. The respective rates for Quebec Catholics were 19% and 9%, about the same as those for United Church and Anglican children. Among conservative Christian children, 26% of occasional attendees, and 23% of non-attendees joined the ranks of regular attendees in 1998. Because of small samples, no reliable estimates could be produced for Presbyterians, Lutherans, Baptists and non-Christians.
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Definition of transition rates Transition tables contain a wealth of information though some of the cells in a transition table will be of special interest to religious leaders. The retention rate is defined as the percentage of regular attendees at religious services in the earlier period who were also regular attendees in the most recent period, = 73% of children in the period 1994-98. The attraction rate is the percentage of non-attendees in the earlier period who were regular attendees in the most recent period, = 24% of children in the period 1994-98. The high commitment rate is similar to the retention rate, though the base period for the calculation is the most recent period rather than the earlier period. It is the percentage of regular attendees in the most recent period who were also regular attendees in the earlier period - 76% of children in the period 1994-98. The high increase commitment rate is related to the attraction rate, though the base period for the calculation is the most recent period rather than the earlier period. It is the percentage of regular attendees in the most recent period who did not attend at all in the earlier period - 9% of children in the period 1994-98. Finally, the dropout rate is the percentage of non-attendees in the most recent period who were regular attendees in the earlier period - 15% of children in the period 1994-98.In all cases worship attendance refers to attendance other than special occasions, such as weddings and funerals, in the past 12 months. |
The high commitment rate is higher for girls than boys (79% versus 72%), and for children aged 8 to 11 in 1998 rather than either 4 to 7 or 12 to 15 (86% versus 60% and 79%). Among provinces, the rate is in the high 70s or low 80s in all provinces except Newfoundland (70%) and Quebec (54%). The rate is much higher in the Toronto metro area (76%) than in Montreal (54%). Children in intact families have a somewhat higher rate (77%) than children in either step or lone parent families (71% and 68% respectively). The rate increases with the level of education of the mother. It is 64% for children with mothers who have less than high school graduation, and 78% for children with mothers who have a university degree, for example. Similarly for household income: the rate is lowest in those households with low income adequacy (67%), and highest in households with either upper middle or high income adequacy (79% each). The rate is much lower among children with mothers who smoke daily, compared with mothers who do not smoke (59% versus 78%). The rate is not very different according to the labour force status of the mother, nor the immigrant status of the mother. The rate is higher, though, if the child attends a publicly funded Catholic school (84%), compared with a public school (72%). The sample is too small to yield reliable estimates for children in private schools.
The high increase commitment rate may be defined as the percentage of regular church attendees in 1998 who did not attend church at all in 1994. Overall, this rate was only 9% in Canada, but among Quebec Catholics it was 18%, and relatively high also among 4 to 7 year olds (19%), and mothers with less than secondary education (18%). This rate is relatively low in British Columbia (4%), among the 8 to 11 year olds and 12 to 15 year olds (4% and 5%, respectively), and among children attending Catholic schools in 1998.
The percentage of non-attending children in 1998 who attended regularly in 1994, the dropout rate, is 15% in Canada. It is relatively high among non-Quebec Catholic children (22%), but higher still among Baptist and other conservative Christian children (37% and 33%, respectively). The dropout rate is also relatively high in Nova Scotia (28%) and the Prairie provinces (25% in Manitoba, 24% in Saskatchewan, and 22% in Alberta), and among children attending Catholic schools in 1998 (23%). Dropout rates are relatively low among Roman Catholics in Quebec (5%), and children aged 4 to 7 in 1998 (7%).
More details on attendance transitions by faith communities, provinces, and subgroups of children and parents appear in tables 1 to 3, and charts 1 to 6, below. The reasons for various types of transitions are hinted at in this first study, though the next research challenge will be to move beyond the description of transitions to analyses of why the major types of transitions occur.
May, 2002
Frank Jones, Adjunct Professor of Economics, University of Ottawa, deemed employee,
Statistics Canada, and Director of Research, Christian Commitment Research Institute.
The author alone is responsible for any errors in this work. Of related interest refer to:
Frank Jones, "Are children going to religious services?" Canadian Social Trends, Autumn,
1999, and Frank Jones, "Churchgoing among native children in Canada's northern territories",
Religious Commitment Note 01-02, September, 2001.
