Abstract

        Up until the 1950s the United Church of Canada exhibited many of the sociological characteristics of religious group strength, with the result that its membership was stable or growing. Dramatic numerical decline began in the 1960s, though, and has continued to the present. Sunday school membership, for example, declined from 610,000 in 1965 to 87,000 in 2006, and is projected to under 40,000 in 2020. Membership fell from 1,064,000 in 1965 to 558,000 in 2006.

        This study sketches the history of this decline, proposes a provisional theoretical framework that links numerical decline and behavioural outcomes, and examines the apparent impact on children by longitudinal data and analyses. Teen worship frequency is simulated.

        We present a detailed profile of United Church and evangelical children. This includes indicators of the situation of the child in 1995, of the teen eight years later, of the parents, of the family, and of the neighbourhood and school, all in 1995. These indicators suggest that despite many material and educational advantages, (e.g. household income, dwelling ownership, child's involvement in sports and clubs, and reading ability) United Church children were more prone to teen problems and high-risk behaviours than evangelical children (e.g. drinking, intoxication, use of drugs, selling drugs).

        This profile is followed by regression analyses that posit that teen behaviour in 2003 was influenced by the home situation in 1995: the age of the child, whether or not the child was a United Church affiliate, the age, sex, marital status, education and loneliness of the child's main parent, and household income and region of residence. Girls and boys are analysed separately and one of the major findings of this study is that behaviours differ significantly.

        Given the other influences, United Church boys compared with other boys are found to be more prone to several high-risk behaviours: intoxication, smoking marijuana, use of non-marijuana drugs, use of LSD/acid, selling drugs, non-use of birth control by the sexually active, having close friends who drink, and lack of closeness to their father, for example. United Church boys also worship less frequently than others.

        United Church girls are found to be similar to other girls in most respects, except for worshiping less frequently and having closer relationships with their mothers, and more distant relationships with their fathers. The estimated relationships for frequency of worship are used to estimate the frequency of teen worship in 2003, for girls and boys separately, both those affiliated and those unaffiliated with the United Church.

        We propose a provisional theoretical model to relate the numerical decline and behavioural outcomes of the United Church using the sociological concept of religious group strength, and then test this model against the evidence on United Church youth. It is found that the model exhibits a good fit with the data for boys, but does not fit the data for girls.

        Practical suggestions on parenting for Christians and inquirers, based on biblical principles, are offered along with a note on the uses and limitations of social science research results.